What We Know About Florida’s June 2026 Property‑Tax Overhaul — What’s on the November Ballot, the Money Math, and the Unanswered Questions

Why This Matters

Property taxes are the primary revenue source for Florida local governments: they fund police, fire, roads, storm water control, pensions, constitutional officers, and — in many counties — a large share of core services. A statewide change of this scale would reshape local budgets, testing whether Tallahassee or local governments will decide priorities and how replacement revenue would be raised.

For ordinary Floridians the choice boils down to a tradeoff: large, immediate tax relief for many homeowners vs. the risk of service cuts, higher taxes on businesses and non‑homestead property, or big increases in consumption taxes to replace lost revenue. Voters need clear numbers from their county budgets to judge the local tradeoffs.

Timeline

1. March 31, 2025Governor DeSantis proposes $1,000 property‑tax rebate plan (administration begins pushing broad property‑tax relief ideas).
2. 2025House Select Committee on Property Taxes holds hearings and develops multiple proposals for 2026 consideration.
3. June 1–2, 2026Florida Legislature convenes a special session called by the Governor; both chambers pass HJR 1‑F/CS/SJR 2‑F and companion implementation bills; vote totals recorded (House 75–26; Senate 30–9).
4. June 16, 2026Enrolled joint resolution filed with the Secretary of State and scheduled as a constitutional amendment for the November 3, 2026 general election (requiring 60% approval).
5. Jan 1, 2027If approved, the homestead exemption for non‑school levies would increase to $150,000 (first phase).
6. Jan 1, 2028If approved, the homestead exemption for non‑school levies would increase to $250,000 (second phase) and indexing for inflation begins in 2029.
7. Nov 3, 2026Election Day — voters will decide whether to ratify the constitutional amendment (60% yes required).

What the package actually changes

The Legislature’s June 2026 package contains two parallel components: a proposed constitutional amendment (enrolled as CS/HJR 1F) that must be approved by voters and an implementing statutory package (CS/SB 4‑F et al.). The amendment raises the non‑school homestead exemption to $150,000 on Jan. 1, 2027 and $250,000 on Jan. 1, 2028, with CPI indexing starting Jan. 1, 2029. It also imposes a new assessment‑growth cap for non‑homestead property — lowering the current 10% cap to 5% annually — and adds a constitutional clause restricting the use of ad valorem revenue to a limited list of categories.

Crucially, the enrolled text excludes school district levies from the expanded exemption; school funding is left intact. The amendment also includes a residency rule: people who become Florida residents after Dec. 31, 2026, would face a lower initial exemption for several years (a five‑year waiting/phase‑in period in the enrolled text), intended to prevent immediate use of the larger exemption by new arrivals.

The money math: official and independent estimates

The state’s Revenue Estimating Conference (EDR) produced multi‑scenario estimates. The modeling shows several billion dollars of lost non‑school ad valorem revenue during the phase‑in: roughly $4–5 billion in the first phase years and rising to $8–12+ billion annually in later years depending on modeling choices about migration and exemptions. The EDC/EDR workpapers document key assumptions — especially how many in‑migrant households will obtain homestead status and when.

Independent analysts (Tax Foundation, Florida TaxWatch, Florida Policy Institute, county appraisers and county budgets) have produced county‑level and statewide projections that overlap but vary by methodology. All agree the effects will be large and uneven — some counties project near‑total elimination of non‑school homestead tax bills for most homeowners, while larger metro counties estimate losses in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

Who gains and who pays

Gainers: owner‑occupants with homestead exemption status, especially those in counties with lower median home values; many homeowners will see a significantly lower non‑school tax bill or no non‑school bill at all after full phase‑in.

Losers or exposed parties: local governments that rely on ad valorem revenue will see budget gaps; renters could face indirect effects if local governments raise fees or other taxes to replace lost revenue; businesses and non‑homestead property owners could face higher effective rates if local governments shift tax burdens. Some small counties stand to benefit politically but still could face operational challenges if the state does not backfill lost revenue.

Legal and political fights to watch

Litigation is already under way in state court challenging the ballot summary and prompting questions about whether the language is misleading. Those lawsuits seek corrections or additional disclosures on the ballot content.

Politically, the governor signaled support for broad reform but has also said he will not formally campaign for the Legislature’s version. Local governments — county commissions, the Florida Association of Counties and the Florida League of Cities — have launched informational campaigns warning of the fiscal consequences. Expect heated county budget hearings this summer as local officials present TRIM notices and fiscal impact statements to residents.

What’s still unclear

How the new constitutional 'use' clause will be interpreted by courts and by local governments. The enrolled language lists seven categories of permissible use for ad valorem revenue; whether that list is read narrowly or broadly will determine whether discretionary programs such as cultural grants and economic‑development subsidies can be paid from property taxes.

Whether the Legislature will pass additional implementing laws after a November approval that change eligibility, carve‑outs, or create state backfill options — and whether any of that will be politically or legally contested.

Exactly how counties will respond: cutbacks, fee increases, restructured budgets, or requests for state assistance. The local policy response will drive the on‑the‑ground consequences for services Floridians use every day.

Where the Evidence Is Strongest

• The enrolled amendment will sharply reduce non‑school ad valorem revenue for counties, cities and special districts if voters approve it.
• School levies were protected in the enrolled text; school property tax revenue is not part of the expanded homestead exemption.
• The fiscal impact is large and geographically unequal — smaller, lower‑value counties will see a different distributional outcome from urban counties with higher property values.

Where the Evidence Is Mixed

• How large the recurring statewide revenue loss will be — estimates range by model and assumption (EDR midrange vs. higher independent tallies).
• Whether the new constitutional restriction on use of ad valorem funds will be interpreted to ban many discretionary local expenditures or only to require prioritization of core services.
• Whether approval would lead to higher local sales or other taxes, or to deep cuts in services; the set of policy responses is still contested.
• How many in‑migrant households will quickly claim homestead and how the five‑year residency rule will be enforced — EDR modeling makes explicit assumptions that materially affect totals.

Frequently Asked Questions

Questions Still Being Investigated

• Will the courts order changes to the ballot summary or explanatory language before Nov. 3, 2026?
• If voters approve, will the Legislature design replacement revenue measures or state backfill programs, and what will those cost?
• How will county-by-county budget actions play out in FY 2027 and FY 2028 — immediate cuts, hiring freezes, or fee increases?
• Will local governments pursue referenda or local measures to restore revenue? If so, how many and where?
• How precisely will property appraisers and tax collectors implement the five‑year residency and eligibility rules in practice?

Related Reading

• How Florida’s county budgets work and what TRIM notices tell you — Practical follow-up for readers to inspect their county’s budget, TRIM notice and to calculate local impacts this summer.
• The history of Florida’s Save Our Homes protections and portability rules — Contextual background on homestead protections that the current package builds on and modifies.
• Replacing property tax revenue: options and tradeoffs examined — A closer look at sales‑tax, fee and bond options and how each redistributes tax burdens across households and businesses.

Sources Reviewed